Slight Risk Today 8/3/08

10:30 PM CDT
Tornado Watch #804 has been issued for Minnesota and Wisconsin until 600AM CDT.

SevereStudios Associate Chasers Andy Gabrielson and Tim Purington are Chasing in Minnesota. Unfortunately the sun has set, so a Live Storm ChaseCam tonight wouldn't make a whole lot of sense.

8:45 PM CDT
The Storm Prediction Center has issued Mesoscale Discussion #2019 for Minnesota. It appears they still believe that storms could form in Minnesota, and given the last few scans of the MPX radar, storms may be firing.

TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED NEAR WARM FRONT AND BEFORE ABOUT 04Z...GIVEN MORE STABLE SFC AIR MASS EXPECTED FARTHER N AND WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

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WHILE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT TO BREAK CAP REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS HOUR..EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION TO SVR LEVELS IS LIKELY WITH ANY SFC-BASED TSTMS THAT CAN FORM IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE OR ALONG COLD FRONT.

7:45 PM CDT
It appears the cap will not bust tonight. The MPX Sounding shows a very strong capping inversion at 850mb. This is most likely why nothing has fired as of yet, and surface temperatures have dropped off. We could still end up with a nocturnal event in MN, but it appears any chance of a day chase are over.

4:00 PM CDT
It appears that convection should break out this evening along I-90 in Southern Minnesota. Tornadoes are definitely not out of the question with backed winds all along the I-90 corridor. The RUC is forecasting CAPE over 8000!

From the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN:

BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN OUR SOUTH CTRL COUNTIES ALSO AIDING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WOULD BE SOON AFTER INITIATION. SIG TOR POTENTIAL SEEMS BRIEF BUT POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH LOCAL RESEARCH REGRESSIONS FOR FAVORABLE SIG TOR PARAMETERS.

Should a significant outbreak occur, SevereStudios will bring you a live moderator feed with Kory Hartman to cover all of the days Severe Weather Events

8:00 AM CDT
There is a Slight Risk of severe weather today from portions of the northern high plains into the upper midwest. The threat for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible if the strong cap can break this afternoon and evening. Stay tuned to SevereStudios for updates!

WATCHES

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #803 for parts of northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas, and western and central Nebraska until 10:00 AM MDT.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #802
for northwest Louisiana and east central and northeast Texas until 12:00 AM CDT.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #801 for parts of northern and western Louisiana, central and southwest Mississippi, east and central and southeast Texas coastal waters until 8:00 PM CDT.

SevereStudios Associate Chasers Tim Purington and Andy Gabrielson will be chasing and streaming live later today.

Today In Weather History...
1987 - A severe thunderstorm moved across Cheyenne, WY, during the mid afternoon. The thunderstorm produced hailstones up to two inches in diameter causing more than 37 million dollars damage. The eastern U.S. sweltered in the heat. A dozen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Paducah KY with a reading of 102 degrees. Beckley WV established an all- time record with an afternoon high of 93 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)