Models are forecasting the remains of typhoon Melor to slam into California, currently extra-tropical. It is expected to affect the Bay Area around Oct 12 with rainfall amounts as high as 8 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains south of San Jose. Latest model runs are now in favor of Southern California being affected as well with as much as 2 inches of rain as far south as San Diego. It's still several days away so everyone is keeping an eye on this system as it could create extreme havic in areas burned by the recent wildfires.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
849 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2009
...STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...>>>
>>>......MOISTURE FROM FORMER WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON MELOR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERLIES AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
WIND AND RAIN TO THE DISTRICT. CURRENT MODELING SHOWS WARM
ADVECTION/WARM FRONTAL RAINS BEGINNING ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SPREADING SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE TROPICAL
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN
1.5 INCHES. 925 MB WINDS ARE ALSO PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 50+ KT...
PERPENDICULAR TO THE HILLS. THUS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND
VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES. THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES. FUTURE MODEL
RUNS WILL HELP PINPOINT THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. RIGHT NOW THAT
AREA COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE NORTH BAY COASTAL MOUNTAINS TO THE
SANTA LUCIAS. SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE TO FOUR DAYS AWAY...THERE IS
TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.